2024 Olympic Previews: Ledecky To Continue Unparalleled Dominance In Women’s 1500 Free

2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

• Pool Swimming: July 27 – August 4, 2024
  • Open Water Swimming: August 8 – 9, 2024
• La Défense Arena — Paris, France
• LCM (50 meters)
• Meet Central
• Full Schedule
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WOMEN’S 1500 FREESTYLE — BY THE NUMBERS:

• World Record: 15:20.48 – Katie Ledecky, USA (2018) 
• World Junior Record: 15:28.48 – Katie Ledecky, USA (2014)
• Olympic Record: 15:35.35 – Katie Ledecky, USA (2021)
• 2021 Olympic Champion: Katie Ledecky, USA – 15:35.35

The women’s 1500 free continues to be the Katie Ledecky show on the world stage. This will only be the second Olympics in which the event is offered, with the first coming in Tokyo three years ago. As is the case with the 800 free, Ledecky has displayed an unprecedented level of dominance in this event. Before we get into that, however, let’s take a look at the results from the Tokyo Olympics.

TOKYO 2021 RESULTS

• GOLD: Katie Ledecky (USA) – 15:37.34
• SILVER: Erica Sullivan (USA) – 15:41.41
• BRONZE: Sarah Wellbrcok (GER) – 15:42.91

The 1500 at the Tokyo Olympics was one of the most competitive women’s 1500s we’ve seen on the world stage in a long time, as Ledecky only won by four seconds and there was a good race for silver. Ledecky was faster in the heats of the 1500 in Tokyo, where she clocked the Olympic Record of 15:35.35.

Also of note, Ledecky is the only returning medalist from the 1500 free in Tokyo. Fellow American Erica Sullivan didn’t qualify for the Olympic Team this time around, while Germany’s Sarah Wellbrock has since retired.

THE 19-TIME FASTEST WOMAN IN THE WORLD

While the numbers aren’t quite as gaudy as they are in the 800 free, Katie Ledecky‘s dominance in the 1500 free over the past decade-plus is still just as historic. The 27-year-old holds the 19 fastest times in history in the event, including the world record, which she set at 15:20.48 back in 2018. Her WR mark is 18.4 seconds faster than anyone else has gone in the history of the sport, with that #2 spot coming in via Denmark’s Lotte Friis, who went 15:38.88 at the 2013 World Champs. Ledecky and Friis are the only swimmers to have ever gone under 15:40 in the event, Friis once, and Ledecky 23 times in her career.

courtesy of Fabio Cetti

The 1500 final in Tokyo was the closest race we’ve seen from Ledecky since the 2013 World Champs when she went up against Friis. That being said, Ledecky still managed to win that race in Tokyo by a comfortable four-second margin. The fact that a victory by 4 seconds feels tight is a testament to the chokehold Ledecky has had on this event since 2013.

Ledecky comes into Paris as the top seed by a massive margin, entering with the 15:26.27 she swam to win gold at the 2023 World Championships in Fukuoka last summer. That swim stands as the 3rd-fastest of her career, and her fastest mile since she set the World Record in 2018. Ledecky was a bit slower at the US Olympic Trials last month, swimming a 15:37.99. It’s hard to truly judge that swim out of Ledecky, though, as she won that race at the U.S. Trials very comfortably and at the end of the day all she needed to do in that race was win.

Given Ledecky’s history, and the fact that she’s the top seed by 17 seconds, Ledecky feels like as close to a lock for gold as we have in Paris.

THE 15:40s CLUB

While Ledecky is firmly set as the favorite in the 1500, there is a contingent of swimmers who are strong contenders for medals. There are 4 women seeded under 15:50 coming into the meet, 3 of whom have won medals in the event at the World Championships.

QUADARELLA-Simona
World Aquatics Championships – Doha 2024
02 – 18 Feb 2024
credit Fabio Cetti

We start with Italy’s Simona Quadarella, who has probably been the 2nd best miler in the world over the past 5 years if we’re trying to rank it out. Quadarella won gold in the 1500 free at the 2019 World Champs in Gwangju (Ledecky pulled out due to illness) and the 2024 World Champs in February of this year (Ledecky didn’t compete). On top of that, Quadarella holds the 2nd-fastest career best in this field, having been 15:40.89 in 2019 when she won World Champs gold, which also ranks her as the 4th-fastest swimmer all-time in the event.

Quadarella had a pair of tough showings at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021 and the 2022 World Champs, but appears to be back on form, having gone 15:43.31 at the 2023 World Champs and 15:46.99 at the 2024 World Champs earlier this year. The battle behind Ledecky will be a hard-fought one, but Quadarella stands as good a chance as anyone at earning a medal.

Next up, China’s Li Bingjie comes in as the #3 seed with a 15:45.71. She swam that time at the 2023 World Championships in Fukuoka, where she earned the bronze medal. That time also stands as Bingjie’s fastest of her career. She’s been on a hot streak as of late, having earned the silver medal at the 2024 World Champs in February of this year. Bingjie has struggled on occasion to get going fast enough in prelims, having finished 10th in the heats at the Tokyo Olympics and 9th at the 2022 World Champs, however, she’s been faring much better in prelims since then.

France’s Anastasia Kirpichnikova is the 4th seed coming into Paris, entering with a 15:48.53, which is also from the 2023 World Championships. That performance was good for 4th in Fukuoka and marked a French Record in the event. Kirpichnikova raced at the 2024 World Championships earlier this year, however, she was well off her career best, swimming a 16:12.98 for 5th. While her time from February wasn’t great, Kirpichnikova has Olympic experience, having competed in the 1500 in Tokyo for her home country of Russia. She came in 5th in the heats in Tokyo, setting a Russian Record of 15:50.22. She would finish 7th in the final.

The last swimmer to be entered under 15:50 for Paris is Australian Lani Pallister, coming in with a 15:49.17. Pallister really burst onto the world stage in the event following the Tokyo Olympics. At the 2022 World Championships, she managed a 15:48.96 for bronze, setting her career best. She would essentially match that performance at the 2023 World Championships in Fukuoka last summer, swimming a 15:49.17, though that swim was only good for 5th last summer. Pallister has been steadily improving and swimming well, as have the Australian women as a whole, so she represents a very real threat in this race.

POISED FOR A BOUNCE BACK?

There is one other swimmer in this field who has been under 15:50, in fact, well under 15:50. The other American in the race, 18-year-old Katie Grimes, holds a career-best of 15:44.89, a time which she swam to earn silver at the 2022 World Championships. While that time is fantastic, and would put her firmly in the race behind Ledecky, Grimes has struggled to get back to that time since 2022. She’s seeded with a 15:56.27, which she swam in March of 2023, and is her fastest performance since the 2022 Worlds.

Katie Grimes (photo: Jack Spitser)

The question surrounding Grimes, one of the youngest swimmers in this field, is whether she can recapture her magic from two summers ago. If she can, she’s as real a medal threat as the others listed above.

OTHERS TO WATCH OUT FOR

Germany’s Isabel Gose represents a bit of a dark horse, if you can call it that, in this event. The 22-year-old is seeded 6th with a 15:52.02, so she’s seeded to make the final, however, she hasn’t been under 15:50 like the women ahead of her. Her career-best stands at 15:50.56, a time which she just swam last month. What Gose does have going for her is she swam very well at Sette Colli last month, as well as at the 2024 World Championships in Doha in February. She earned silver in the 800 free, as well as bronze medals in the 400 and 1500 free in Doha. If she can ride that momentum for Worlds into Paris, she could really make a splash in the 1500 here in a few days.

Australia’s Moesha Johnson will be an interesting swimmer to watch in this event. She earned her way onto Australia’s team by swimming her career best of 15:57.85 at the Australian Trials in June. Given that she’s fresh off a career-best, and that Australia has a lot of good things going for them right now, especially in women’s swimming, it will be interesting to see if Johnson can make some noise in Paris.

38-year-old Kristel Kobrich from Chile is competing in her 6th Olympics this summer. Kobrich is a legend in South American swimming, having sustained a level of longevity rarely ever seen in the sport. She has an uphill battle to make it out of prelims, as she’s seeded 15th with a 16:10.58, however, her having qualified for a 6th Olympics is a stunningly impressive feat in itself.

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