2023 World Champs Previews: Léon Marchand and the Quest for the 400 IM World Record

2023 World Championships

• July 23 – 30, 2023 (pool swimming)
• Fukuoka, Japan
• Marine Messe Fukuoka
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
• SwimSwam Preview Index

By The Numbers — Men’s 400 Individual Medley

• World Record: Michael Phelps, United States — 4:03.84 (2008)
• World Junior Record: Ilya Borodin, Russia — 4:10.02 (2021)
• Championship Record: Leon Marchand, France — 4:04.28 (2022)
• 2022 World Champion: Leon Marchand, France — 4:04.28

Think back to last June and the opening night of the 2022 World Championships. After a sensational first year in the NCAA training at Arizona State, Leon Marchand walked out to lane four for the championship final of the men’s 400 IM. In prelims, he’d cracked his own French record and had put himself in position to claim his first senior international medal.

Leon Marchand, courtesy of Fabio Cetti

In an absolutely shocking performance, Marchand dove into the water and put a serious scare into one of the oldest world records on the books. He scorched a 4:04.28, the second fastest swim all-time for gold, setting new championship and European records.

It feels like Marchand has been riding a wave of momentum since that swim. He won two more individual medals in Budapest (one gold, one silver) en route to being named the male swimmer of the meet. Back in yards and the college scene, he went undefeated for the 2022-23 season. On the way to that achievement, he broke NCAA records in the 200 breast, 200 IM, and 400 IM, bringing the latter’s mark to a jaw-dropping 3:28.82.

Now, he returns to the World Championships stage having fully broken out and with his eyes on Michael Phelps‘s world record. At the French Elite Championships, he posted a world-leading 4:07.80, even though he hadn’t shaved and was “about 50% prepared,” according to his coach Bob Bowman.

With the 400 IM final back on the first night of the championships, Marchand has a perfect shot at breaking the record. He was ahead of Phelps’ pace after the breaststroke leg in 2022, but fell off during freestyle. He made big improvements in his backstroke in the yards season, which should help close the gap to Phelps’ 1:01.57 split.

We’re well past March, but it seems like there’s more Marchand Madness in store.

The Americans

Marchand was in a world of his own in the Budapest final. He won the race by over two seconds. Though it was overshadowed by Marchand’s swim, silver medalist Carson Foster had an impressive swim in his first Worlds final. He dropped nearly two seconds from his personal best and moved up to #8 all-time with a 4:06.56.

Carson Foster (photo: Jack Spitser)

So, while Marchand is the clear favorite for gold as he chases history, Foster also looks like a good bet to be on the podium. Since making the 2022 Worlds team, he’s finally emerged as the versatile long-course weapon many were expecting him to be. And, in his own words, he swims his best races when he’s next to Marchand.

At 2023 U.S. Trials, Foster was running second to Chase Kalisz after the breaststroke leg. But, he didn’t panic and chipped away at Kalisz’ lead over the last 100 meters to take the win in a season-best 4:08.14. That’s the third-fastest time in the world this year, putting Foster in a strong position.

There were rumors last year that Kalisz–the reigning Olympic champion–was done with the 400 IM. However, he put them to rest at Worlds, where he fired off a 4:07.47 for bronze: his fastest time since 2017 and third-fastest ever.

Since that swim, Kalisz moved to ASU, reuniting with Bowman and becoming one of Marchand’s training partners. He’s been swimming well since that move, particularly in the 200s of stroke.

The 29-year-old veteran finished just behind Foster at U.S. Trials, hitting 4:08.22. That’s over two seconds faster than he went to make the Worlds team last April. And, after almost a year of training in a both new and familiar environment, Kalisz seems set to get even closer to his 4:05.90 personal best from 2017.

In 2022, the medalists were well ahead of the rest of the field. Kalisz earned bronze by over three seconds. But, it doesn’t seem like that will be the case this year, as their competitors are catching up quickly.

Final Factors

Besides Marchand, there’s only one swimmer who’s been sub-4:08 this season: Daiya Seto. At the 2023 Japan Swim, Seto blazed a 4:07.92–one of the best 400 IM performances of his career. After a disappointing home Olympics, Seto rebounded nicely in SCM, winning the 400 IM at both 2021 and 2022 SC Worlds, bringing his SC world title streak up to six.

In Budapest, he was slower in the 400 IM final than he was in prelims and finished 6th (4:11.93). He did climb the podium in the 200 IM later in the meet, grabbing bronze ahead of Kalisz.

But, his performance at the Japan Swim suggests that he’s rounded back into form in the long-course 400 IM. For the first time in years, it looks like the 2019 World Champion is ready to compete for the medals at a Worlds/Olympic level meet.

Daiya Seto courtesy World Aquatics

At the same meet, his teammate Tomoru Honda also had a big swim, clocking a personal best 4:10.37. Honda finished 6th in this event last year. He’s much more of a 200 butterfly specialist and as the defending silver medalist and SCM world record holder, is one of the favorites for gold there in the absence of Kristof Milak. He likely won’t be a medal threat here, but could make another final appearance.

A potential threat to shake up the podium is New Zealand’s Lewis Clareburt. The 24-year-old Kiwi had a breakout meet at the 2022 Commonwealth Games, winning gold in the 200 fly and 400 IM. He swam 4:08.70 en route to win in the IM, breaking the Oceanic, Commonwealth, and championship records.

One of the keys to that swim was an improved breaststroke leg, which was a primary training focus for him. He split 1:11.60 on breaststroke, which he’ll need to keep improving in Fukuoka if he wants to challenge for a medal.

Clareburt hasn’t had much reason to show speed so far this season, and sits further back of the main competitors with a season-best of 4:14.78.

Watch For…

Brendon Smith (photo: Jack Spitser)

The entire 2022 Worlds final is slated to race in a few weeks in Fukuoka. That includes Brendon Smith and Balasz Hollo, the two finalists we haven’t touched on yet. Smith, the Tokyo Olympic bronze medalist, wound up fifth in Budapest (4:11.36). That was well off his personal best 4:09.27. However, he’s gotten closer to that standard this year, hitting 4:10.64 at the 2023 Australian Trials.

While 4:10 should be enough to make the final, based on the speed young stars like Marchand and Foster have injected into this race, he’ll need a big PB to get back on the podium.

For his part, Hollo swam a personal best 4:10.87 during Worlds prelims last year to qualify for the final. Then, he added over four seconds and finished 8th. He’ll need to be back on his best form during prelims, because there are plenty of swimmers itching for a lane in the Worlds final. Chief among them is Alberto Razzetti, who missed the final last year and wound up 9th.

The Italian got his revenge later in the summer, claiming the 2022 European Championship title in 4:10.60. He owns a lifetime best sub-4:10, as he swam 4:09.91 at the Tokyo Olympics. After missing out last year, he’ll be eager to not make that same mistake.

SwimSwam’s Top 8 Picks

Dark Horse: Wang Shun, China — The Tokyo Olympic gold medalist in the 200 IM has reportedly “found [his] motivation and purpose again.” He’s much more of a factor in the 200 IM, but could this renewed drive extend to the 400 IM? In Budapest, he tied for 14th in 4:17.85. Since then, he’s posted a 4:13.96 at this season’s Chinese Nationals. He still has a ways to go before nearing his 4:09.10 national record from 2013, but he could surprise for a finals spot.