2018 MEN’S NCAA SWIMMING & DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS
- Wednesday, March 21 – Saturday, March 24
- Jean K. Freeman Aquatic Center – Minneapolis, Minnesota
- Defending champion: Texas (3x) (results)
- Psych Sheet
- Championship Central
200 Breaststroke
- NCAA Record: 1:47.91, Will Licon (TEX), 2017
- American Record: 1:47.91, Will Licon (TEX), 2017
- U.S. Open Record: 1:47.91, Will Licon (TEX), 2017
- 2017 NCAA Champion: Will Licon, Texas
For the first time in six years, the men’s 200 breaststroke appears to be wide open heading into the NCAA Championships. In 2012, an Arizona freshman by the name of Kevin Cordes finished 3rd in an very tight final won by Louisville’s Carlos Almeida. After that he owned the event for two years, winning in both 2013 and 2014 by over three seconds. Heading into his senior year as the big favorite once again, Texas sophomore Will Licon pulled off a shocking upset to win the title by .05.
Licon then took over the mantle, dominating the event the next two years with emphatic wins by 1.2 and 3.3 seconds respectively, both in NCAA and American Record fashion. Now with Licon gone, there’s no clear favorite. And beyond that, half of last year’s A-final were seniors, and a total of 7 out of the 16 finalists. The door is open for someone to smash through and make a name for themself.
Looking back at our pre-season picks, there were two favorites heading into the year (though there was hardly a consensus): Carlos Claverie of Louisville and Mauro Castillo Luna of Texas A&M. Given they were the top two returning finishers from last season (Castillo Luna was 3rd, Claverie 5th), it made sense. However, they come into the meet seeded 5th and 10th, with plenty of big (and a few surprising names) above them. That being said, both men still have a chance, but so do a lot of swimmers.
Castillo Luna is likely being overlooked with new and interesting names atop the rankings such as IM specialists Andrew Seliskar and Mark Szaranek, but the Aggie senior has consistently dropped time from SECs to NCAAs each of the past two years, including going from 1:54.4 to 1:52.0 last season. On top of that, this year at SECs he was 1:52.1, making it look like a 1:50 is in the cards for him.
As for Claverie, he’s also consistently improved from conference to NCs, but the drops have been minimal. Unless he’s saving something big this year, his ceiling looks to be around 1:52-mid, which will get in the A-final for sure but won’t get him the title.
Seliskar and Szaranek will swim this event for the first time at the NCAA Championships. Seliskar, who was 1:52.2 in high school, has opted for the 200 fly in years prior, but after putting up an impressive 1:53.05 at the Georgia Invite, dropped a 1:51.30 at Pac-12s to solidify his spot as a threat in this race. In both his freshman and sophomore seasons he consistently dropped time from Pac-12s to NCAAs, putting him in the conversation to go 1:50.
Szaranek has a much smaller sample size in this event, swimming the yards version of the event only four times heading into this season (with a best of 2:01.96). Finally cracking the two minute barrier at the Purdue Invite in 1:55.7, he unloaded a 1:51.86 in February to win the SEC title over Castillo-Luna. Indications from SECs (from interviews, not quality of swimming) show the Florida men, specifically the seniors, didn’t taper much and are saving everything up for a big NCAA showing. After stepping up and tying Licon for the 200 IM title last season, he’s proven to swim big when it counts and has a legitimate shot at the title.
Though some of these guys have a shot to hit 1:50 (or lower) at NCAAs, only one man in the field has ever gone the time. Indiana junior Ian Finnerty exploded for a massive personal best at Big Ten’s in 1:50.78, knocking nearly four seconds off his best time coming into the meet of 1:54.43 (he was also a PB 1:53.22 in prelims). Finnerty has added from Big Ten’s to NCAAs in all six of his events throughout his first two years of college, making him a skeptical pick to be in the mix for the win. That is especially true in the 200, where he’s added an average of about 4 seconds from conference in his two NCAA swims. Even if he adds two seconds he’ll be in the A-final, but we’ll need proof early in the meet that he’s on form before we put him any higher than that.
Along with Finnerty, the Big Ten showed some great depth in this event with six different swimmers cracking the 1:54 barrier. Minnesota’s Conner McHugh unloaded a big best of 1:51.41 to sit 3rd in the country, while Finnerty’s Hoosier teammate Levi Brock had an unbelievable breakout meet to take 3rd in 1:52.78, knocking over four seconds off his best and qualifying for his first NCAA Championships as a senior. It’ll be hard for them to go much better after such big drops, but equalling their times should get them in the A-final. Joining them sub-1:54 was the Michigan trio of Jacob Montague, Tommy Cope and Charlie Swanson. Montague got a second swim as a freshman last year, placing 11th, while Cope got all the way down to 1:52.9 in prelims at Big Ten’s for a big best time. Montague and Cope will be in the fight for an A-final slot, while Swanson, primarily an IMer, should make the consols.
Purdue senior Marat Amaltdinov was the Big Ten champ last season and 7th at NCAAs, but was just 8th at conference this season. He’ll need to get back down into the 1:52s, which he was twice last year, in order to get back in the A-final.
There are plenty of others in the mix, including last year’s 6th place finisher Nils Wich-Glasen of South Carolina, Cornell’s Alex Evdokimov who was a consolation finalist last year but landed a big best at Ivy’s, and up-and-coming Louisville freshman Evgenii Somov. Jonathan Tybur of Texas A&M, Caio Pumputis of Georgia Tech and James Guest of Georgia are also right there having all been 1:53-mid this year.
TOP 8 PREDICTIONS
| Place | Swimmer | Team | Season Best | Best Time |
| 1 | Mauro Castillo Luna | Texas A&M | 1:52.15 | 1:52.01 |
| 2 | Andrew Seliskar | Cal | 1:51.30 | 1:51.30 |
| 3 | Mark Szaranek | Florida | 1:51.86 | 1:51.86 |
| 4 | Ian Finnerty | Indiana | 1:50.78 | 1:50.78 |
| 5 | Conner McHugh | Minnesota | 1:51.41 | 1:51.41 |
| 6 | Carlos Claverie | Louisville | 1:53.10 | 1:52.81 |
| 7 | Jacob Montague | Michigan | 1:53.23 | 1:53.23 |
| 8 | Nils Wich-Glasen | South Carolina | 1:53.53 | 1:52.41 |
Darkhorse: Though Alex Evdokimov did drop a personal best of 1:52.28 at the Ivy League Championships, he added a bit of time at NCAAs last year. He’ll be right on the cut line for the A-final.
Ian Finnerty will take the breaststroke events when his ears stop acting like atop signs.
Mauro also made the A cut in the 100 fly. He’s gonna be tough! The whole Aggie squad has made huge strides since Mauro and Tyber’s breakthrough season last year.
Even though there’s a lot riding against Ian Finnerty, I still think he will “crush” the field.
Ya know what’s weird? Out of the top 4,
Luna, Seliskar, and Szaranek are 45-point butterfliers.
Finnerty, Seliskar, and Szaranek are 133 freestylers (or better).
are they swimming those events at ncaa’s?
Luna is eneterred individually in the 100 fly (wow), Seliskar, Finnerty, and Szaranek are non-breaststroke relay shoe-ins.
Even counting IMers, I never saw Licon, Cordes, Prenot, Miller, Fink, Alexandrov, Hansen put up those times in off events. Heck even Michael Andrew, Reece Whitley, or Daniel Roy would be jealous of a 45 fly or 133 free.
Well Andrew is still a 46 low in his fly, he isn’t far off 45.
I bet Prenot has a 45 fly in him. All of those guys besides Cordes are/we’re very good 200 IMers as well – that has to translate into at least decent stroke times.
Matter of fact, I just looked – Prenot has been 45.8/1:43 fly.
Don’t count Finnerty out. Last year he came down with a fever the last day of BIG’s and went 1:59 in the 200 after a 51-low in the 100. He was healthy by NCAA but had a flat meet. I think he may have a much better showing at this year’s NCAA.
I don’t think anyone is counting him out, or they shouldn’t in the 100, but I think his 200 is a totally different ballgame
I have him to win both in the Pick em, so probably cursed him now anyway………
I think this set of picks is a little all over the place. Assuming some co-mingling, Seliskar has likely been doing some training with Prenot, and I would pick him as the favorite, he’s got great walls and some serious over the water speed, plus the 400 IM pedigree sets him up well to hold on. We also know Finnerty has also been training with Cody, who had a huge winter nationals going 1:49, so I wouldn’t put a top 3 or even top 2 spot out of Finnerty’s reach. Jacob Montague is the other swimmer I think is a little misplaced; he had a great summer last year, and should be looking to make big strides in the small… Read more »
“all over the place” = “doesn’t agree with me”, apparently 🙂
I’d say these picks are all very well-supported. You can have your own informed opinions, that doesn’t make these predictions wrong. I’d also caution against crediting too much to swimmers based on their training partners. I spent years training with a 52-second LCM backstroker. That didn’t mean I could break that time in yards. 🙂
Of all the tight races, I think this one will be my favorite, because unlike a few other races, there aren’t any clear favorites (as you mentioned)! I’d also hate for Seliskar to end up like Conger on always being the bridesmaid, so I may be a touch biased there, but realistically you could put all these names in a hat and shake it up and you’d have a real shot on picking the actual winner haha
If you’re going to go with training partners as a gauge, Michigan and A&M both had 4 guys in the top 30 of this event… that’s two really good training groups right there.
Farris. 1:39.
Dressel 1:38.9
I understand we all like Dressed here. But come on. I mean Farris is in a different league let’s not kid ourselves.
Very conservative.
Why would he swim an extra 50????
Seliskar 1:49 low.
My $$$ is on Seliskar