2018-2019 Women’s NCAA Power Rankings: Final Edition

As in previous years, SwimSwam’s Power Rankings are somewhere between the CSCAA-style dual meet rankings and a pure prediction of NCAA finish order.  SwimSwam’s rankings take into account how a team looks at the moment, while keeping the end of the season in mind through things like a team’s previous trajectory and NCAA scoring potential.  These rankings are by nature subjective, and a jumping-off point for discussion.  If you disagree with any team’s ranking, feel free to make your case in a respectful way in our comments section.

NCAAs are fast approaching, and with psych sheets out and events finally selected, we’ve put together our final edition women’s Power Rankings.

The conference rounds saw some huge shake-ups – in particular, two women’s teams surged to much higher ranks. The Auburn women had an outstanding SEC showing and vaulted from 17th to 12, while the NC State women rode a dominant ACC performance from 10th to 7th in our final ranks.

Stanford remains our consensus #1, and in general, we saw a lot of consensus from our rankers. In fact, we all had the exact same top 5, with three more teams later in the ranks where all five rankers agreed exactly.

SwimSwam’s Power Rankings are the average of ballots from a panel of our top college swimming reporters. While this should help readers glean which teams are consensus picks at their rank and where in the order things get fuzzy and more subjective, bear in mind that these rankings are not an opportunity to personally attack any specific writer.

Biggest risers:

• Auburn: #17 to #12
• NC State: #10 to #7

(Also receiving votes: Ohio State, Arizona State)

#20: Arizona Wildcats (Previous Rank: #19)

With Ledecky gone, Kirsten Jacobsen very much has a chance at a title in the 500 free, but the field is crowded. After a lackluster dual meet season, the Wildcats brought it at Pac-12s, and their relays look strong. -KO

#19: Arkansas Razorbacks (Previous Rank: #20)

Hopkin + Schultz + relays. -KO

Arkansas may win the NCAA Efficiency Title: the most points per qualified athlete. Anna Hopkin is going to score a truckload, plus relays. Diver Brooke Schultz should put up significant points, too. -JA

#18: Missouri Tigers (Previous Rank: #18)

Mizzou moved up from seed pretty significantly last year, and they come in with more seeded points this season. A big meet from Ann Ochitwa would mean a lot to the relays, seeded to score 44 points. -JA

#17: Florida Gators (Previous Rank: #16)

Can Florida’s young stars continue carrying this team through NCAAs? The SEC results were impressive. -JA

Sherridon Dressel has arrived. New coaching system and a good freshman class have both worked well this year. -KO

#16: Wisconsin Badgers (Previous Rank: #14)

The Badgers will go as far as Beata Nelson takes them, but we know that she’s going to take them far. She’s favored to take both backstrokes and her IM is reaching new heights. Her sprint free is better than ever, too, and freshman Lillie Hosack (along with a solid supporting relay cast) should offer up some nice support. -KO

#15: Kentucky Wildcats (Previous Rank: #13)

I don’t think we’ve seen the best that the Kentucky Backstroke Machine can do yet this year. Asia Seidt is primed to go sub-1:49 in the 200 back this year. -JA

#14: Georgia Bulldogs (Previous Rank: #15)

Georgia generally performs very well at NCAAs. This is a much younger, much different Georgia roster than we’ve seen the past couple years, but I’d expect that trend to continue. The firepower is limited, but UGA will get the most out of what they have. -JA

#13: Minnesota Golden Gophers (Previous Rank: #11)

Chantal Nack was absolutely lights-out at Big Tens. If she can match that level of swimming at Nationals, she’s the kind of big-time national performer who could pull the Golden Gophers into the top 10. -JA

#12: Auburn Tigers (Previous Rank: #17)

Auburn had an oustanding month of February. Psych sheet scoring puts them – incredibly – in sixth place nationally. I don’t think they’ll hold that, but we’ve definitely been too low on Auburn’s women, who seem to be thriving under a new coaching staff. -JA

Auburn is seeded 6th at NCAAs in Gary Taylor‘s first season. That might be the biggest one-year turnaround of the decade. How much of that can they hold on to at NCAAs? -BK

Auburn is a very different team from last year and Claire Fisch‘s explosions are huge for their relays — past that, she is definitely an A-final favorite in the 50 free. -KO

#11: Virginia Cavaliers (Previous Rank: #12)

My gut says that UVA is going to be more impressive at NCAAs than they were at ACCs. They have a huge team coming to the big meet, but nobody is really slated to challenge for any titles. Their depth is key, so they need everyone to pitch in — no relying on one or two stars to deliver. -KO

ACC fans would have you believe that everyone was simultaneously rested and completely unrested for women’s ACCs. Who knows what to make of it all? UVA held on to seeded points pretty well last year, and they have the second-most individual qualifiers of any program in the nation. That’s a nice setup for a big NCAAs. -JA

#10: Texas A&M Aggies (Previous Rank: #9)

Sydney Pickrem could have room to move up in the 400 IM after not swimming that event at SECs. Can the relays improve from 44 projected points in the Swimulator? -JA

#9: USC Trojans (Previous Rank: #8)

Louise Hansson is entered in the 200 IM, but she may swim five relays again, like she did last year. That’s going to take away from USC’s seeded points, though. The Trojans need some of their swimmers just outside the top 16 to move up and score – a tall order for a team that slid 58 points from seed at NCAAs last year. -JA

As far as mid-season additions are going, New Zealand’s Laticia Leigh-Transom and Australia’s Jemma Schlicht have been great relay pieces for the Trojans. With Courtney Caldwell not fully competing this season, having those sprint free options sturdies the USC relays. -KO

#8: Indiana Hoosiers (Previous Rank: #7)

Diving should come up big for IU, which got 35 dive points from underclassmen last year. Just how fast is Lilly King going to go on both medleys with a whole national field to run down? -JA

#7: NC State Wolfpack (Previous Rank: #10)

The Wolfpack impressed all-around at ACCs, and psych sheets have them in 5th for seeded points by a wide margin. Another team hoping to put 2018 misfortune behind them. -JA

Things are going very well for State. Kylee Alons has shown she’s far more than just a drop dead 50 freestyler, and the freshman class as a whole has been on point all year. Olivia Calegan is having a long-overdue breakthrough, too. -KO

#6: Louisville Cardinals (Previous Rank: #6)

After last year, Louisville had a bunch of returners on the cusp of NCAA scoring. As of now, the Swimulator only projects Mallory Comerford, Grace Oglesby and Alena Kraus to score individually. If that second wave is going to take a step forward, it has to come at NCAAs. The good news: relay scoring looks great for the Card. -JA

#5: Tennessee Volunteeers (Previous Rank: #5)

Erika Brown didn’t disappoint at SECs. Time for Tennessee to prove that last year’s -27 slide from seeded points was a product of a few fluke mistakes (false start, swimming the wrong stroke on a relay) and not a pattern. -JA

#4: Texas Longhorns (Previous Rank: #4)

Texas will climb from seed. History shows Michigan will probably fall from seed. This one puts all of the pressure on the Texas divers – if Meghan O’Brien can have a big performance as a senior to join Samantha Bromberg in the A-finals, then the Longhorns are probably 3rd. -BK

We know what Texas’s upperclassmen can do. Their relays will go as far as freshmen Julia Cook and Grace Ariola will take them, which will be pretty far if they can light it up. -KO

Psych sheet scoring isn’t favorable, but Texas really had no reason to get up and go at Big 12s. The relays are going to score massive points. -JA

#3: Michigan Wolverines (Previous Rank: #2)

Michigan fell behind Cal in our ranks this time around, but there didn’t seem to be a ton of urgency for the Wolverines at Big Tens. The focus is clearly nationals, and trying to remedy the nearly-30-points they lost from seeds at NCAAs last year. If Maggie MacNeil can become the first woman under 50 in both fly and back, the relays are going to surge in a big way. -JA

#2: California Golden Bears (Previous Rank: #3)

The NCAA record at Pac-12s was the start of something great this postseason. We wondered where Amy Bilquist was – turns out she’s ready to go. Isabel Ivey is going to have a big impact, and Cal may just be the top threat to Stanford this year. -JA

Isabel Ivey is exactly what Cal needed to solidify themselves ahead of tough Michigan and Texas teams, and Abbey Weitzeil’s sprint speed is being very well-complemented by the likes of Amy Bilquist and Katie McLaughlin. -KO

#1: Stanford Cardinal (Previous Rank: #1)

The Cardinal were able to swim off events at Pac-12s and still win handily. Psych sheet scoring makes things look close, but Stanford should move up from seed and the relays have room to improve. -JA

Stanford still has more to drop — they continue to impress right when it looks like they might not be the heavy favorites. Worth noting that among their unsung heroes has been Lauren Pitzer, who is incredibly range-y and has elevated her game this season. -KO

Full Ranking Ballots