As in previous years, SwimSwam’s Power Rankings are somewhere between the CSCAA-style dual meet rankings and a pure prediction of NCAA finish order. SwimSwam’s rankings take into account how a team looks at the moment, while keeping the end of the season in mind through things like a team’s previous trajectory and NCAA scoring potential. These rankings are by nature subjective, and a jumping-off point for discussion. If you disagree with any team’s ranking, feel free to make your case in a respectful way in our comments section.
As we head into conference championship season, it’s time for our penultimate NCAA Power Rankings on the men’s side. Our top spot has gone back and forth between Cal and Texas all year, and this edition is no exception as the two trade their ranks from our most recent rankings.
Texas started the year #1, but Cal took over that rank after the fall dual meet season. We put Texas (narrowly) back at #1 after winter invites, but now Cal has surged back to the top heading into the conference rounds.
See also:
We’re introducing a new format for our Power Rankings this season: a committee system where we average out the top 20 ballots of multiple SwimSwam writers to come up with our official ranking order. While this should help readers glean which teams are consensus picks at their rank and where in the order things get fuzzy and more subjective, bear in mind that these rankings are not an opportunity to personally attack any specific writer.
With that said, onto our fourth rankings for the 2017-2018 season:
(Also receiving votes: Minnesota, Notre Dame, Miami)
#20: Denver Pioneers (PREVIOUS RANK: N/A)
Denver has developed a stud sprinter (Sid Farber) and a great backstroker (Anton Loncar) who pair for excellent relays. -JA
Sid Farber and Anton Loncar have positioned themselves nicely to be able to score at the NCAAs, and Denver’s 200 and 400 free relays are in great shape. They’ll need more fly and breast speed to be able make their medley relays contenders, and propel them higher in the rankings. -SP
#19: MISSOURI TIGERS (PREVIOUS RANK: #17)
Did you know that Missouri graduated 3 of 4 legs from last year’s NCAA third-place 400 medley relay, yet somehow still ranks 4th in the nation this season? This team has way more fast swimmers than big names. Expect to be surprised by one or two little-known Tigers this postseason. -JA
#18: GRAND CANYON ANTELOPES (PREVIOUS RANK: #20)
Grand Canyon is out to make a statement in its first year of NCAA eligibility. Can the medley relay repeat its stellar mid-season performance? -JA
Grand Canyon has a lot going for them, with great backstroke speed out of Mark Nikolaev, Youssef El Kamash in the breast events, and a lot of speed on the all relays except the 800 free relay. -SP
#17: PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (PREVIOUS RANK: #15)
There won’t be many point-scorers, but Steele Johnson should be one of the top overall individual scorers, swimming or diving. -JA
#16: LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (PREVIOUS RANK: #16)
Louisville has a lot of nice pieces through fly and breaststroke, but their medley relays are suffering from the lack of a true stud sprinter. That said, Andrej Barna hit a lifetime-best 50 free back in November, and a big ACC meet from him could launch the Cardinal relays into orbit. -JA
#15: SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS(PREVIOUS RANK: #18)
Brandonn Almeida wasn’t earth-shattering in his debut, but don’t underestimate his potential impact in a loaded distance group. -JA
#14: AUBURN TIGERS (PREVIOUS RANK: #13)
Zach Apple and Hugo Gonzalez continue to look good in January, but there’s a steep drop-off after those two stars. -RG
#13: TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (PREVIOUS RANK: #14)
Diving transfer Colin Zeng is going to add 35+ points to a team that’s sneaky-good in the pool. -JA
Tennessee has a lot of scoring ability in relays, as well as some individual performers to back it up. The addition of Colin Zeng in diving has given them top 10 potential. -SP
#12: GEORGIA BULLDOGS (PREVIOUS RANK: #11)
Gunnar Bentz is back. That’s huge. But unless he’s bringing three 19-second freestylers back from injured reserve with him, this team is going to struggle for relay points. -JA
No doubt Gunnar Bentz returning is huge for the Bulldogs, however, they’ve somewhat underperformed this season. They definitely shouldn’t be counted out, but Georgia’s going to need to have a great showing at the SECs. -SP
#11: TEXAS A&M AGGIES (PREVIOUS RANK: #12)
These Aggies aren’t going away. Mauro Castillo is still somewhat overlooked as an NCAA title contender in breaststroke – can he put himself fully on the radar with a big SEC performance? -JA
#10: ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (PREVIOUS RANK: #10)
A win over Texas shows how far this team has come the past few years. It also solidifies the sense that they can crack the top ten, but it’s hard to see them moving up much more. – RG
#9: ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (PREVIOUS RANK: #9)
Don’t let a bad loss to Ohio State fool you. Alabama was victimized in distance free and diving, but this roster is still built for big NCAA points. -JA
#8: USC TROJANS (PREVIOUS RANK: #7)
Carsten Vissering looked great in his return, which instantly returns USC’s medley relays to contender status. -JA
#7: MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (PREVIOUS RANK: #8)
The Wolverines have continued to impress me the entire season. They are 1st or 2nd in all the relays in the Big Ten, and have, in my opinion, the 2nd best all-around freestyle squad in the NCAA (behind Stanford) as well as one of the deepest IM squads. -SP
#6: INDIANA HOOSIERS (PREVIOUS RANK: #6)
Just like with #1/2 and #3/4, I keep going back and forth Stanford and Indiana. Right now, Stanford gets the edge only because some of the Hoosiers’ key swimmers have consistently performed better at Big Tens than NCAAs the past few years. -RG
Gabriel Fantoni is an excellent addition to the Hoosiers, creating more potential combinations for already good medley relays. -SP
#5: STANFORD CARDINAL (PREVIOUS RANK: #5)
Stanford’s free group is phenomenal, and more importantly, they have the ability to score in every single swimming event, including the relays. That will make them very dangerous at the NCAAs. -SP
#4: FLORIDA GATORS (PREVIOUS RANK: #4)
Most of the relay ranks don’t yet include Caeleb Dressel, but the Gators currently have a lot of ground to make up on NC State. -JA
#3: NC STATE WOLFPACK (PREVIOUS RANK: #3)
Do we even know who will swim what relay for NC State? The Pack runs deep with versatile talents like Ryan Held, Jacob Molacek, Justin Ress and Andreas Vazaios, giving the coaching staff myriad relay options at ACCs. -JA
#2: TEXAS LONGHORNS (PREVIOUS RANK: #1)
Too many stars to not show up at NCAAs. Plus a big diving advantage. -JA
If you trust the Texas taper, there’s no reason to be unduly worried about the Longhorns’ loss to ASU. There’s more reason to be worried about John Shebat not swimming the past two weekends, even if he’s now supposed to be back for the postseason. – RG
#1: CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS (PREVIOUS RANK: #2)
Every time I’ve crunched the numbers, Cal comes out ahead by 10-20 points. A single DQ or sub-par morning swim could make the difference at NCs. – RG
I think it’s safe to say it will be a bloodbath between Cal and Texas at the NCAAs, and while Texas probably has more star power, I think Cal has more momentum going into their conference meet. That can make a big difference going into taper. -SP
Cal might have the best relays in the nation as a whole. Ryan Hoffer is starting to look like a true budding star again. -JA
FULL RANKING BALLOTS
| Rank | Jared | Braden | Robert | Spencer |
| 1 | Texas | California | California | California |
| 2 | California | Texas | Texas | Texas |
| 3 | NC State | Florida | NC State | NC State |
| 4 | Florida | NC State | Florida | Florida |
| 5 | Stanford | Stanford | Stanford | Indiana |
| 6 | Indiana | Indiana | Indiana | Stanford |
| 7 | Michigan | Michigan | Michigan | Michigan |
| 8 | USC | USC | USC | USC |
| 9 | Alabama | Texas A&M | Alabama | Alabama |
| 10 | Arizona State | Alabama | Arizona State | Texas A&M |
| 11 | Tennessee | Georgia | Tennessee | Arizona State |
| 12 | Georgia | Arizona State | Texas A&M | Georgia |
| 13 | Texas A&M | Auburn | Georgia | Tennessee |
| 14 | Auburn | Tennessee | Auburn | Auburn |
| 15 | Louisville | South Carolina | South Carolina | South Carolina |
| 16 | Missouri | Purdue | Louisville | Purdue |
| 17 | Purdue | Louisville | Purdue | Louisville |
| 18 | South Carolina | Grand Canyon | Grand Canyon | Grand Canyon |
| 19 | Minnesota | Notre Dame | Denver | Denver |
| 20 | Grand Canyon | Minnesota | Miami (FL) | Miami (FL) |
Jared,
Know any diving experts who could give us some fun speculation for diving scorers so all the swimming fans commenting here can have some idea how diving results might come into the overall scoring and team placements?
Dunc – we did cover the Tennessee Diving Invite, which gave us at least some idea of where some of the new divers rank compared to those who scored last year: https://staging2.swimswam.com/transfers-freshmen-shine-tennessee-diving-invite/
Without going too in-depth on research, I’d say the top men’s teams in diving scoring should include Purdue, Indiana, Tennessee and Miami. The next tier of pretty good diving scorers would include Texas A&M, LSU, USC, Texas and Stanford. That includes Texas, IU, USC, A&M and Tennessee out of our top-ranked programs. We do include diving potential in our Power Rankings, though diving is much harder to compare scores at varying meets.
Jared you wouldn’t happen to know the last time a team won because of diving? IE, the difference in score of the top two teams was less than the difference in the points their respective divers scored? I remember the last three years Texas hasn’t needed it due do standard Texas dominance, and the year before, 2014, it looked like Texas was gonna win on the back of Michael Hixon for the first 5 sessions…
Just one word makes a difference in my view: DIVING
Speaking of the top….6 teams and what DIVING will contribute. I believe Indiana has the best divers of the bunch, then Texas, then NC State. Cal and Florida are pretty lacking on divers. Which just makes Texas have a bigger cushion and leaving the others in a close battle. Not saying Cal will get lower than second, or that Texas is untouchable, by any means.
Just definitely feel diving will let NC State finally climb higher up on the NCs rankings, to take third. Flordia would have to overcome the depth and diver’s scores. Even with Dressel, that’s a point max. Indiana will challenge Harvard, maybe taking 5th.
March can’t come fast enough!
I was saying that a lot early on in this year’s rankings, but there’s people out there who for whatever reason get really mad when it’s mentioned that divers score at the NCAAs, and therefore are relevant in the rankings. Right now, the only reason that I’m only leaning towards Cal as #1 instead of being fully behind them is that Texas will score in diving, whereas Cal will probably not.
YES! For example… Eastern Michigan has won the last two MAC titles almost completely thanks to their divers. Missouri State outswam them by a lot, but EMU had most of the top 8 on both boards. I feel like diving is often overlooked. If a contending title team could give their last roster spot up for 3 top 16 divers, they could get way more points from those three divers than that last swimmer.
of all these top teams Texas is easily my favorite. That being said I would LOVE to see Florida win the meet because it would mean Dressel would have to be superhuman and carry 4 relays to titles and the rest of the team stepping up. What do you guys think if Dressel does that do they have a shot? I’m assuming he doesn’t do the 800 relay because they can most likely get top 4 at a minimum without him
Florida is good but it seems like a few teams just have more top end depth than Florida does. I’d be very surprised to see them compete with Cal and Texas for a title, but I suppose anything could happen.
Dressel will be superhuman and Florida still won’t win four relays. And that wouldn’t make much of a difference anyway. The rest of the team would have to be absolutely on fire the whole meet to have even the slightest chance.
I’m just looking forward to watching the competition and kick-ass swimming. I like both Cal and Texas, so win-win!
Robert and Spencer know whats up #skopios
Yes, Lovcar agrees with this. very nice.
If the battle for the NCAA title is going to be that close, then every race is going to count. No one is going to want to let their team down.
The coaches are going to have to nail their tapers this year. Cal and Texas are known for saving the full tapers of their Big Guns for the NCAAs.
The meet is being held in Minneapolis, which is the same Time Zone as Indiana and Michigan and Texas. That may tip the scales just enough vs. West Coast teams.
In that rationale, watch out NC State and maybe even Minnesota?!?
nc state’s a time zone ahead of everybody else. just another example of nc state being one step ahaed of the rst of the country.
Start saying that when they begin winning NCAA’s.
NC state is actually 3 time zones ahead of California
That makes BOTH NC State and Florida same timezone. Also Georgia.
Gaining an hour flying west is definitely easier than losing when flying east. but all athletes of NCAA caliber are used to it. Won’t be a factor. #sorrynotsorry
Actually, Minneapolis is Central Time Zone, but most of Indiana, including Bloomington, is in the Eastern Time Zone.
Regardless, I think overcoming a two hour time difference from Pacific Time is hardly a big deal and certainly no one will lose any sleep over it ?
Yes, you’re right about the time zones. However, it is about a 4 hour flight from California to Minnesota.
And it’s about the same flight time from Austin, TX so, your initial point about advantages of the the time zone difference for Texas v. West Coast schools is still a head scratcher; as is your flight time comment in general. Surely you don’t really think travel time will impact the meet outcome, do you?
If you combine the effects of a long trip with a two-hour time change. it can make a difference.
Maybe that’s why Matthew Josa from Cal got all those DQs last year. He was feeling the effects.
Yeah, I’m with you on the skepticism, Coach Schaffer. I was at a DII school without much sports money and we still had the budget to get to NCAAs three days before the meet, which pretty much negates travel fatigue. Surely big-time DI teams can manage at least that.
I think you need to re-check your Time Zones
Every time I’ve crunched the numbers, Cal comes out ahead by 10-20 points. A single DQ or sub-par morning swim could make the difference at NCs. – RG
“A single DQ? Hold my beer.” – Matt Josa
If he wasn’t holding the beer, he’d be able to touch with 2 hands
That’s why he’s asking somebody else to hold it this time.
Which, interestingly enough, will actually be Dean Farris on his way to winning the 100 fly while holding Josa’s beer.
Ah, only if Purdue had even average swim coaches they’d be looking at top 10.