Michael Phelps‘ return to competition was hyped by the launch of his MP brand, designed by Aqua Sphere. While any competition with Phelps is exciting, the Mesa meet proved to be more of a mid-season testing ground.
Phelps looked fit, strong, and he was clearly training-through Mesa. Coach Bob Bowman said he’d been making him work, and — compared to last year — Phelps actually has a real base from which to develop. Phelps echoed Bowman’s thoughts, saying he was essentially tapered all last year. “I swam the same time over and over” (re: 100 fly), Phelps laughed.
With little to go on this early in the season, let’s go for it. Let’s play the Phelps prediction game. Last year I made bold predictions and I’m sticking with them. Call it blind positivity or a glass-half-full mentality, but I think Phelps will add more than medals to his storied history between now and next year. I think he’ll inch toward new world records, and I believe he’s got a great 100 free in him, one we have never witnessed.
WHAT WE KNOW
Phelps is not training for the 400 IM. That should help his speed, and we know (from Mesa) he’s going to be training more 200 fly in practice, but only for his 100 fly stroke, stroke-count and feel. These are all positive signs.
MEL PREDICTIONS FOR U.S. Nationals
100m butterfly – 50.49
100m freestyle – 47.87
200m IM – 1:54.9
***I think the times above are a mere step toward 2016 U.S. Olympic Trials in Omaha, and SwimSwam will play the prediction game for Olympic Trials as early as December of this year.
What are your Michael Phelps predictions for the U.S. Nationals?
This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by SwimOutlet.com. Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of SwimSwam.com, a Swimming News website.
Predictions are way too fast
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Mel’s predictions are too fast.
100 fly- 50.85
100 free- 47.7
200IM- 1.55.2
I think he will also race 200fly, he should because he is very good at it
200fly- 1.54.02
Everyone seems to be forgetting 2010. Phelps’ mantra that whole season was how out of shape he was and yet he still managed:
100 Free: 48.13
200 Free: 1:45.6
100 Fly: 50.65
200 Fly: 1:54.1
200 IM: 1:55.9
If he is actually training again (presumably harder than he was at this time in 2010), why shouldn’t we expect him to be faster than these times? I think there’s really something to his new attitude, and new training philosophy. I think being able to take a step back really helped him unlock some of the ideals that he had held for so long when he was in training. I think he is now able to understand… Read more »
MP’s 100 free times have always improved year by year, with the exception of Rome 09 and then in 2010 when swimming went back to textile and times understandably rose a few tenths again. Example:
2005 WC – 48.98 (I think)
2006 Pan Pacs – 48.8
2007 WC – 48.41 (Which would have won him gold in the individual 100 race)
2008 Olympics – 47.5 (Wins him silver had he raced the individual 100)
2009 WC – 47.8
2010 Pan Pacs – 48.1 (A then Pan Pac record!)
2011 WC – 48.08
And in London 2012, his 47.15 relay split sort of indicates that from a flat start he could have possibly… Read more »
I’d add the 2Fly in the mix. My bet is that he sticks with his guns and goes 1Fly 2 Fly 2IM and 1Free
All you saying these phelps predictions are a bit too optimistic but say swimmers like Nolan will do great in long course cause they did good in short course. Remember when phelps went a lifetime best in his 200 im in short course yards and did a good 100 free in yards too?
I agree, Uberfan. He also went a lifetime best in the 100 fly at that meet in March. And unless I’m mistaken, his previous best 100 fly SCY was from a March meet in the buildup to Beijing.
100 Fly: 50.89
100 Free: 48.36
200 IM: 1:55.19
Anyone think MP should have got a different coach?
I’ve actually wondered the same thing. I think Bowman is a great coach (incredible at long term planning/goal setting), but I’d like to see him coach elite level speed. This will be a big factor in his success at ASU. If you want to compete at NCAAs, you have to have speed and sprinters who can help compete in relays.
I believe training builds on itself, and all the work Phelps has done over his career is still in there. Meaning, it’s easier to reach elite fitness if you’ve already been there as opposed to someone doing it for the first time. Michael’s weakness is his first 50 in each 100, so that should be the main plan of attack… Read more »
I would vote 1.) Marsh 2.) Salo 3.) Bottom
IMHO, having a coach who knows your strengths and weaknesses as well as practice/intermediate/goal times as intimately as Bowman does for Phelps is invaluable to a comeback attempt like he is making with limited training time, because there is so little time for trial and error.
This doesn’t seem likely. Bob isn’t just his coach. He is his business partner in several different ventures. And essentially a parent figure, or at least an uncle figure, given how long they have been paired together. I imagine that with a little over 1 year to go before Rio, the mental adjustment of a new coach after 20 years together would not go smoothly.