2013 Worlds Preview: Le Clos, Matsuda, Korzeniowski Vie for Fly Title

 Michael Phelps is gone, but plenty of names remain in the 200 fly field.  Pawel Korzeniowski, Takeshi Matsuda, and Laszlo Cseh have all won medals at long course World Championships, and Chad le Clos is the defending Olympic champion.

The Field:

The favorite is reigning Olympic champion Chad le Clos of South Africa.  Last summer in London, le Clos upset Michael Phelps—undoubtedly the greatest butterflyer of all time—in the final 200 butterfly of his career.  The swim was one of the biggest swim stories of the Olympics, and also gave us this awesome post-race interview with his father, Bert le Clos.  His final time of 1:52.96 was the #2 textile performance of all time, behind Phelps’ 1:52.09 from the 2007 World Championships (arguable the greatest swim of his entire career).

The biggest challenge for le Clos will likely come from either Pawel Korzeniowski of Poland or Takeshi Matsuda of Japan.  Both have had enormous success over the last decade, but have always had the misfortune of swimming in the same heat as Phelps.  Korzeniowski looks like he is ready to take advantage of a Phelps-less field; his 1:55.26 from Polish nationals is the top-ranked performance so far this year, and shows he is in a great spot to push le Clos.

After finishing a disappointing third in a loaded field (Japan had 3 of the top 8 and 6 of the top 22 200 flyers in the worlds coming into WUGs) at Japanese Nationals, Takeshi Matsuda looked like he would be left home.  However, when Japan released their Worlds roster in April, Matsuda was surprisingly listed, with 200 fly runner-up Daiya Seto being scratched from the event to focus on his IM races  (whether that was voluntary of through coercion from the federation is unknown).  Matsuda has been the most persistent challenger to Michael Phelps over the last five years, earning a silver medal at the 2011 World Championships, and bronze medals at the 2008 Olympics (0.27 behind silver medalist Laszlo Cseh), 2009 World Championships (0.09 behind Pawel Korzeniowski), 2010 Pan Pacs (0.08 behind Nick D’Arcy), and the 2012 Olympics (0.20 behind Phelps).

Joining Matsuda is Yuki Kobori, who swam a 1:55.51 at Japanese Nationals to win the national title in this event, good for #4 in the world this year.  Though just a teenager (he will turn 20 in November), Kobori already has plenty of international experience; he led off the 9^th place Japanese 800 free relay in London.

Just to appreciate the longevity of Phelps, Korzeniowski, and Matsuda, take a look at their year-by-year world rankings from 2004-2013:

[chart]

Another young name to watch is Velimir Stjepanovic of Serbia.  The 19-year-old made huge strides in 2012, jumping from 36^th in the world the previous year all the way to the Olympic final in 2012.  Stjepanovic took the first step earlier this year to go from “surprise finalist” to “medal threat” in Barcelona, turning in the #11 time in the world at the 2013 Mediterranean Games.

China’s Chen Yin is a returning Olympic and 2011 Worlds finalist searching for his first individual medal at a top-level international meet.  After finishing fourth at the 2011 World Championships behind Phelps, Matsuda, and countryman Wu Peng, Yin showed he was ready to take the reins from Wu last summer, qualifying third in the semifinals in London, but faded in the final to finish eighth.  Yin put up the 10^th best time in the world (1:56.02) at Chinese nationals to qualify for Barcelona.

After missing the Australian Olympic team last summer by 0.27, Grant Irvine came into 2013 with a chip on his shoulder.  Using that close call as fuel, Irvine dropped a 1:55.32 at Australian Nationals, good for #2 in the world (though we should note it was the top time when he swam it… Korzeniowski bettered it two months later at Polish Nationals), and an Australian textile record (only Nick D’Arcy has been faster, back in 2009).

Former North Carolina Tarheel Tom Luchsinger will be looking to make some noise in his first senior-level international meet for the United States (he qualified for 2011 Pan Ams, but turned it down).  Luchsinger opened a commanding lead over the third 50 and didn’t look back, cutting 1.94 from his previous best time to touch in 1:55.57, the #5 time in the world in 2013 (just 0.31 out of first place).  Though nobody was expecting an American to completely fill Phelps’ shoes in this event right away, if Luchsinger can quell the nerves that come with being on the big stage for the first time and put together another lifetime best swim, he could sneak onto the podium.

Tyler Clary is the other U.S. representative in this event, but it’s tough to tell just how well he’ll do.  The ability is there (he finished 9th at 2011 Worlds and 5^th in London last summer), but Clary has repeatedly admitted to suffering from a lack of motivation for an extensive period after the Olympics.  We’ll see how that affects him on the big stage.

Hungary’s Bence Biczo has been on the cusp of a top-level swim for a number of years now.  Over the last four years, Biczo has been ranked 10^th (2010), 4^th (2011), 12^th (2012), and 9^th (2013) in this event, just missing the A Final at 2011 Worlds and the 2012 Olympics.  He’s been so close the last couple years, and a perfect race could put him in medal contention.

Biczo could have company in the championship final; his country mate Laszlo Cseh is still around (and somehow, despite having swum at an internationally elite level for what seems like an eternity, Cseh is only 27 years old).  He has fallen back a tad from when he was at his best (late 2007-2009, during which he won three silver medals in Beijing, six individual golds at European Championships, and two medals at 2009 Worlds the same week he was hospitalized with a bad stomach virus), but he proved he still has more in the tank last December at Short Course Worlds, where he won two silvers and a bronze.  Expect him to make multiple championship finals in Barcelona.

The Picks (times are best from Jan. 2010-present)

1. Chad le Clos, South Africa – 1:52.96
2. Takeshi Matsuda, Japan – 1:53.21
3. Pawel Korzeniowski, Poland – 1:55.00
4. Chen Yin, China – 1:54.43
5. Grant Irvine, Australia – 1:55.32
6. Tom Luchsinger, United States – 1:55.57
7. Yuki Kobori, Japan – 1:55.51
8. Velimir Stjepanovic – 1:54.99