The women’s distance events have traditionally been a young woman’s game and with the emergence of Chinese teenager Xu Danlu that may continue in Barcelona. In November, at the age of 13, Xu posted astonishing times at the Asian Championships in Dubai where she won the 400 freestyle in a time of 4:05.75 and the 800 freestyle in a time of 8:22.24.
Since November Xu swam the 800 freestyle in Turkey at the World Short Course Championships where she finished seventh in a time of 8:22.96 and won the Chinese National Championships in April in a time of 8:25.09. At that same meet she recorded a 4:09.43 in the 400 and a 16:07.02 in the 1500 freestyle.
I know that I am beginning to sound like a broken record with this, but since we have so little information about the in season performances of Chinese swimmers it is very hard to forecast their championship performances with any great precision. Considering Xu’s age and her improvement curve in the last year, coming into 2012 her lifetime best was 8:42.04, it is probably safe to say that she will be ready to make another significant improvement, which will put her in the mix to win a world championship.
Olympic champion American Katie Ledecky is currently ranked second in the world in the 800 freestyle having posted a time of 8:20.64 in April. Although she did only go a 8:22.41 at the World Championship Trials in June Ledecky did post lifetime bests in the 400 (4:04.05) and the 1500 freestyle (15:47.15) in Indianapolis.
Katie Ledecky won the 800 freestyle in 8:22.41 at the 2013 World Championship Trials.
Ledecky made huge improvements in 2012 improving on her lifetime best of 8:36.05 in 2011 by 21.42 seconds to win Olympic gold in London at the age of 15 in a time of 8:14.63.
Spaniard Mireia Belmonte Garcia is currently ranked sixth in the world with a season’s best of 8:24.89. Belmonte Garcia won the silver in London in a time of 8:18.76, heading into the games she had a lifetime best of 8:24.23 in June of 2012, so she has shown the ability to make a significant drop from her previous in season times. She has also posted a season’s best of 4:05.63 in the 400 freestyle, which is just off her lifetime best of 4:05.45.
Belmonte Garcia’s experience and a desire to have a strong showing in front of a home crowd should also play a big factor in her success in Barcelona.
Great Britain’s Jazz Carlin has comeback from a disappointing year in 2012, where she missed the Olympic team, to have a very impressive 2013 where she is currently ranked first in the world in the 800 freestyle in a time of 8:18.58. She is also ranked second in the world in the 1500 with a time of 15:47.26 and fifth in the world in 400 freestyle with a time of 4:04.25.
Carlin’s time in the 800 freestyle betters her previous best of 8:25.67 that she recorded 2011 by more then seven seconds. Considering that she posted her lifetime best by such a significant margin so close to Barcelona it may be a challenge for her to make any more improvements that may be necessary to be on the podium.
Lauren Boyle of New Zealand currently ranks third in the world with a time of 8:23.08, which she recorded earlier this month. Boyle finished fourth in London in a lifetime best time of 8:22.72. The 25 year old had a tremendous World Short Course Championships winning the 800 freestyle in a time of 8:08.62 and finishing third in the 400 freestyle in a time of 4:01.24, which are both New Zealand national records.
Lotte Friis of Denmark, who is currently ranked eighth in the world with a time of 8:25.29, is the most decorated and experienced distance swimmer in the field. Friis won the bronze in the 800 at the 2008 Olympics, at the 2009 World Championships in Rome she won gold in the 800 and silver in the 1500, at the 2011 World Championships in Shanghai she won gold in the 1500 and silver in the 800 and she finished fifth in London in a time of 8:23.86.
Friis also had a very strong performance in Turkey at the World Short Course Championships finishing second in a time of 8:10.99.
American Chloe Sutton currently ranks fourth in the world with a time of 8:23.24. Sutton finished fourth in this event in Shanghai and finished third in Turkey at the World Short Course Championships posting a time of 8:15.53.
Andreina Pinto Perez of Venezuela is currently ranked tenth in the world this year in a time of 8:25.93, which she posted in May. Pinto Perez finished eighth in London in a time of 8:29.28, but qualified for the final in a time of 8:26.43.
Picks with best times since January 1, 2010:
- Danlu Xu – 8:22.72
- Katie Ledecky – 8:14.63
- Mireia Belmonte Garcia – 8:18.76
- Jazmin Carlin – 8:18.58
- Lauren Boyle – 8:22.72
- Lotte Friis – 8:18.20
- Chloe Sutton – 8:23.24
- Andreina Pinto Perez – 8:25.93
Ledecky for Gold all the way !
Not that it really matters but why do you have a guy swimming for the picture for a womens event
I am always concerned with Chinese swimmers. You never know what they will bring to a race.
“vitamin” infused water…
Are you talking about the russians?
It’s been stated that Ledecky wasn’t tapered for the trials meet. People say this a lot so you never know if it’s true until the big show. But a few things seem to support this. Her 200 and 800 free times at the Grand Prix meet in Mesa were faster than her times in Indy. But more significantly her 800 split in the 1500 was 8:22 (to her feet) demonstrating that she got a bit of rest as the meet went on … the 800 free was on the first day and the 1500 was on the last day.
Finally a clear news from Yannick Agnel.
He will swim the relays and the 200 free in Barcelona. No 100 free.
For the rare Americans who speak French, here’s his interview of yesterday. 🙂
http://lci.tf1.fr/sport/yannick-agnel-annonce-sur-tf1-qu-il-va-concourir-en-individuel-8137821.html
Good thing, but this whole ordeal was unnecessarily full of drama..
Agnel may not be on his form of last year but I’m tempted to pick him this year anyway.
I’m really torn.
I have no idea what his shape is like now.
Is swimswam really predicting Xu Danlu will win 800??
Maybe swimswam is thinking that Xu Danlu will do a Ye Shiewen ca. 2011 Shanghai?
I wouldn’t bet against Ledecky. And I hope she breaks WR too.
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Swimswam needs to send a representative to China to do some fact finding and get the real scoop on the Chinese. And wake me up when the 800 is over.
the race will be over by 300m…Ledkecy!