It’s getting down to crunch time, and it looks like we may come up just short of predicting all of the events. However, we’ve stayed up to the wee hours of the night to make sure we didn’t skip the distance events. That’s because the 1650 freestyle in Indy this year is, at least on paper, maybe the best 1650 freestyle field that we’ve ever seen. Even with the graduation of the great Chad la Tourette.
Georgia’s Martin Grodzki is the defending champion in both the 500 and 1650 freestyles. He hasn’t looked like himself for most of the second semester, but his mid-year times from the Georgia Invitational show just enough of a glimmer to know that he’s still a contender (4:16.7 and 14:57.07).
Nobody else returning was even close to him in the mile last year, but there’s good reason to think that some can get down into his NCAA Record-setting range. Connor Jaeger from Michigan was a relative novice in this race at NCAA’s last year and still broke out a 14:35 for 2nd-place overall. Beyond that, Grodzki isn’t the only NCAA Champion in this field. Before finishing 8th last year, Texas’ Michael McBroom won this race as a sophomore.
McBroom has gotten the magic back this year; he’s already broken the NCAA Record for the mile’s stunted cousin, the 1000 free. When McBroom and Grodzki went head-to-head in this race at NCAA’s in 2011 (along with La Tourette), McBroom was the better closer. The explosion from Grodzki last season, though, as Grodzki’s last 200 yards were about a 1:43.0. That’s ridiculous.
It’s hard to really say what type of swimmer (front half/back half) Jaeger is, given his limited exposure to the race in yards, but from what we saw over the summer, he probably tended more toward back-half in long course.
Grodzki’s seed time will leave him in the third-to-last heat: far from ideal in a timed-final race like this. The good news for him is that his teammate, the other U.S. distance Olympian, Andrew Gemmell will be in that heat as well. Specifically, without scratches, Grodzki will be in lane 5 and Gemmell will be in lane 7.
Those two are both top 5 finishers from last year, and if they can push each other appropriately, they’ll be there again this year despite their seeds.
Altogether, the impressive Georgia distance group has 5 qualifiers for the longest race on the schedule. That includes freshman Matias Koski, who won the 500 free SEC title this year but looked unrested for his other individual swims (the 200 and the mile).
Michigan has a haul in this race as well, and it is crucial to their team national title hopes. Between Jaeger, Sean Ryan, and Ryan Feeley, they’ll have three in the last heat. Throw in mid-season addition Anders Nielsen, and that becomes four out of the top 12 seeds.
Auburn’s Zane Grothe, a junior, has gotten better each year of college. Stanford’s Drew Co
sgarea has huge significance on the Cardinal’s outcome this year; a pair of A-Finals would go a long way toward ensuring at least a top 3 finish. USC’s Cristian Quintero looked outstanding at Pac-12’s and was 9th last year after just a semester training in Southern California. Craig Hamilton from LSU was one spot behind him, and last year at NCAA’s dropped an amazing 13 seconds from his previous season-best.
There were a ton of guys who had big drops at NCAA’s last season; Cosgarea, Minnesota’s CJ Smith, Cal’s Adam Hinshaw, and Florida’s Connor Signorin are among those who made big improvements on their NCAA taper in this race.
Top 8 Picks, and seed times:
500 free
1. Connor Jaeger, Michigan, 4:13.44
2. Cristian Quintero, USC, 4:13.37
3. Martin Grodzki, Georgia, 4:16.72
4. Sebastien Rousseau, Florida, 4:17.53
5. Zane Grothe, Aubun, 4:15.44
6. Michael Flach, South Carolina, 4:15.32
7. Michael McBroom, Texas, 4:14.42
8. Will Hamilton, Cal, 4:19.00
Darkhorse: Dimitri Colupaev, USC/Frank Dyer, 4:20.53 – both Colupaev and Dyer are seeded below the invite line in this race, as both had strange circumstances at their conference meets. Colupaev miscounted in prelims and ended up in the B-Final of the 500. Dyer swam a double in the 50/500, one that he won’t swim at this meet. There’s actually a whole lot of guys who used “Optional Entries” to make this race but could easily be in the top 8. Bobrosky, CJ Smith, Bryan Offutt…
1650 free
1. Michael McBroom, Texas, 14:33.53
2. Connor Jaeger, Michigan, 14:34.87
3. Andrew Gemmell, Georgia, 14:59.97
4. Martin Grodzki, Georgia, 14:57.07
5. Zane Grothe, Auburn, 14:41.45
6. Cristian Quintero, USC, 14:51.85
7. Craig Hamilton, LSU, 14:53.10
8. Matias Koski, Georgia, 14:53.32
Did anyone dig up that footage of Mel interviewing Zane when he was 16 at ASCA in Vegas back in 08?
Michigan 1 up and 4 down w/ Jaeger leading qualifier. Cal 2 down. Grodzki doesn’t make top 16.
Matias will Finnish in the top 8 of the 500 and most likely the 1650 (arguably his best event historically). I would not count him out to win the 500, but top 8 at least.
1,650 yards does not equal a mile. It’s a 1650. Is a 1,000 yard swim a kilometer? No…….
Calling the 1650 a mile is just plain ignorant.
Sam, you are correct, a mile is 1760 yards, but it’s like calling a tissue a Kleenex. Not every tissue is a Kleenex, but people still know what you’re talking about. For swimmers’ intents and purposes, calling the 1650 “the mile” is acceptable, and quite common.
Koski should be top 8 in the 500. He won it at SECs, and you have 4 people beating him at NCAAs from SECs. A lot of people add time at NCAAs; typically UGA swimmers do not, especially the distance group.
Arthur Frayler should be good in the mile. He wasn’t rested for SECs and was still doing an intense amount of yardage. If Georgia men swim as well as the Georgia women’s team did then I think Koski could be top 8 in the 500. We will just have to see who pushes it enough in prelims to make it in
I don’t think you can rule out Arthur Frayler from Florida, he will probably finish in the top 8, though his freshman times are unremarkable so far, for him.