2012 Men’s NCAA’s Day 3 Picks/Predictions

This final day of the men’s meet will be way more exciting than the second day. I’d guess at least one NCAA Record will go down here, and the races were much less well-defined. Whereas on most day 2 races, there were maybe 2 or 3 legitimate contenders, on Saturday there will be 6 or 7 in most races.

There should still be a great team battle going on during this final day of competition, so keep an eye on how that might play into these races.

Men’s 1650

1. Chad La Tourette (Stanford – #2 seed)
2. Martin Grodzki (Georgia – #5 seed)
3. Michael McBroom (Texas – #6 seed)
4. Sean Ryan (Michigan – #3 seed)
5. Andrew Gemmell (Georgia – #13 seed)
Darkhorse: David Mosko (Stanford – #20 seed)

The caveat that always has to be considered in this race is that seeding is incredibly important. In a race as long and tactical as this 1650, that swims as a timed-final, being in the last heat is very crucial. It’s so important that defending National Champion Michael McBroom time-trialed this swim, with a qualification already secured, just to make sure he got into that evening heat. But if there were a year that one could jump up and do it, it would be this season. There’s three great candidates in this race in Jackson Wilcox of Texas, William Freeman of Georgia, and Cristian Quinteroof USC. Tag on Andrew Gemmell, and they’ll tag on really their own little A-Final in the last morning heat.

I think that extra swim since Big 12’s could cost McBroom the repeat. La Tourette and Grodzki are just too good. Michigan’s Sean Ryan is part of an incredible Michigan distance group that will be able to feed off of each other in this race with three out of the four middle lanes occupied. If anyone can pop up out of those earlier heats, it’s Gemmell. He’s a very bad in-training swimmer, but still has a decent enough seed in this race. He, along with Stanford’s David Mosko, are a pair of potential A-Finalists in this race who didn’t swim at this meet last year.

Men’s 200 Backstroke

1. Cory Chitwood (Arizona – #1 seed)
2. David Nolan (Stanford – #2 seed)
3. Alex Lendrum (USC – #3 seed)
4. Matt Thompson (Stanford – #11 seed)
5. Matthew Swanston (Stanford – #7 seed)
Darkhorse: Cole Cragin (Texas – #22 seed)

In their third matchup of the meet, I think this is Chitwood’s best chance at hold off the freshman phenom Nolan. College swimming is all about underwaters, and not only is Chitwood great at them, but his best wall is his last wall. He just crushes that final wall, and he won’t be denied his third-straight win in this 200 back.

Men’s 100 Free

1. Vlad Morozov (USC – #1 seed)
2. Jimmy Feigen (Texas – #3 seed)
3. Marcelo Chierighini (Auburn – #2 seed)
4. Aaron Wayne (Stanford – #5 seed)
5. Dax Hill (Texas – #9 seed)
Darkhorse: Paul Gordon (Iowa – #21 seed)

Some would consider this race an upset. Sobeit, let’s call it an upset – Vlad over Jimmy. Morozov has just been too good all season long. Feigen has been ultra-focused on the Olympics and long course swimming, which is borderline a different sport than short course. Both swimmers are going to hit their tapers though, no doubt about that, so don’t expect the win to come easy for either swimmer. The top three all will have big-time Olympic roles for their respective nations, and many view Chierighini as the missing 4^th piece to a medal-worthy Brazilian relay.

Paul Gordon was a great 200 swimmer for Iowa last year, but this season he’s put team-first and really worked on his sprints. That makes this 100 an ideal candidate for a big score by him.

Men’s 200 Breaststroke

1. Nick D’Innocenzo (Texas – #11 seed)
2. Carlos Almeida (Louisville – #12 seed)
3. Eric Friedland (Texas – #24 seed)
4. Austen Thompson (Arizona – #2 seed)
5. Curtis Lovelace (Stanford – #15 seed)
Darkhorse: Brandon Fischer (Wyoming – #16 seed)

Arizona has the top three seeds, though last year none of those top three placed in the A-Final. But Eric Hansen has some history of success with breaststrokers, so no reason to believe that would happen again this season. Texas’ Eric Friedland is the defending champion, but he’s buried way down in the psych sheets. I think his teammate Nick DInnocenzo will nip him here. This could be the race where Texas clinches the title (if things go that way).

This is a really odd-feeling pick. I’ve only got one single-digit seed going in the top 5. That makes me feel nervous, but not nervous enough to change the picks. Who qualifies as a darkhorse when you’ve got the 11, 12, 24, and 15 seeds going 1-2-3-5? Let’s go on name recognition rather than seed. Wyoming’s Brandon Fischer swam his best time back in November, and didn’t rest for his conference championship meet. We saw the strategy work out well for women’s backstroker Kelsey Conci last weekend, as she won the 100 back B-Final. If Fischer’s swim works out the same, he could make a big statement for the Cowboys.

Men’s 200 Fly

1. Bobby Bollier (Stanford – #6 seed)
2. Tom Shields (Cal – #1 seed)
3. Dan Madwed (Michigan – #3 seed)
4. Marcin Cieslak (Florida – #2 seed)
5. Kyle Whitaker (Michigan – #5 seed)
Darkhorse: David Mosko (Stanford – #15 seed)

Though Texas could have the meet locked up by this point, Stanford won’t be down-and-out. Between Bollier and Mosko, they’ll have two big scorers left in this 200 fly, as well as some big diving points (though Texas will as well). If it’s close, look for the Cardinals to strike. Arizona will be lucky to pick up a few in this from Woody Joye, their only entry.

Shields broke the NCAA Record last year, but couldn’t defend the title. Bollier was the USA Swimming National Champion last summer, and was 2^nd last year. Neither is near a taper yet this season. I think this is the easiest NCAA Record to just go ahead and pencil in as “broken”, but by which man? And can Cieslak get in on the action too? I’ll give the race to Bollier on momentum.

Wisconsin’s Daniel Lester would be a top-5 pick, but he’ll be back after a long week of competition at the Australian Trials. Mosko earns his 2^nd darkhorse-bid of the meet. He’s known as a good distance freestyler, but underrated as a distance butterflier.

Men’s 400 Free Relay

1. Stanford (#4 seed)
2. Texas (#5 seed)
3. Cal (#1 seed)
4. USC (#3 seed)
5. Auburn (#2 seed)
Darkhorse: Iowa (#6 seed)

I’ve got a theory on this 400 free relay. The best 400 free relays at NCAA’s are those not only with seniors, but with senior leaders on them. At the end of long meets, with 10, 12, 14 swims over three days, kids need something to swim for. If it’s not for team titles (reality has usually set in by then), then it’s for their senior leaders. We know they themselves will step up, as there’s nothing to save an ounce of emotion for. But when the younger guys want to swim for those senior leaders, great things happen. That’s why I really like the Stanford (2 seniors) and Iowa (3 seniors) relays.

Texas, Cal, and USC could finish in any of the above orders, but we’ll see the best three 100 freestylers in the country in those three relays (Feigen, Morozov, and Shields).