The summer of 2011 will feature a huge meet in the FINA World Championships, but that doesn’t mean it’s too soon to begin looking at the 2012 NCAA season. Over the next few months, we will count down the top 12 teams from last year’s NCAA Championships, along with a few teams that we expect to break through, until we finish with the two defending National Champions from Berkeley. To keep track of all of our season previews, we’ve added a link in the menu bar, just click “College Previews” at the top of the page (now located under the “In the News” menu).
Note that this will wrap up our 2011-2012 top 12 previews. We have a few more “sleeper” team previews in store over the next few weeks, and also look for our top-20 pre-season rankings for both the men and the women.
Key Losses: Nathan Adrian (51 NCAA Points, 4 NCAA Relays), Damir Dugonjic (31 NCAA Points, 2 NCAA Relays), Martti Aljand (32 NCAA Points), Graeme Moore (38 NCAA Points, 4 NCAA Relays), Josh Daniels (6 NCAA Points, 2 NCAA Finals Relays, 1 NCAA Prelims Relay), Guy Barnea (9 NCAA Points, 2 NCAA Relays), Nick Ferrif (3 NCAA Points)
Key Additions: Tyler Messerschmidt (Sprint Free/Back), Seth Stubblefield (Sprint Free/Fly), Christian Higgins (Breaststroke), Adam Hinshaw (IM), Will Higgins (Sprint Free/ Fly), Fabio Gimondi (Sprint Free – Italy)
2010-2011 Recap: This Cal team had a great Championship meet in 2011. They really built a program around their sprinters, and if you were to look in isolation at all races 100 yard and shorter (including relays), this was arguably the best all-around speed team in NCAA History. They took 4 individual National Championships and 3 relay National Championships, and even with some of their top-guns not having their best meets, this team still cruised to the team Championship.
But this year’s team is going to look a whole lot different than last year’s. They graduate 14 out of 20 relay spots, which leaves them with Tom Shields as the only returner in the four shorter relays that all took either 1st-or-2nd, though they do return three swimmers from the 5th-place 800 free relay. They’ve also graduated well over half (170) of their 311 individual points.
The King of Cal: Shields is now the clear-cut superstar of this team. Last year, the spotlight was shared by several veteran Cal swimmers, including NCAA Record holders Dugonjic and Adrian, 2012 Olympic probable Graeme Moore, and underrated star Martti Aljand. But this is now Shields’ team. After taking double gold as a freshman, Shields’ only title in 2011 actually came in a new event, the 100 back, which he didn’t even find out he’d be swimming until the week of the Pac-10 Championships. In the 100 fly, he was beaten by a resurgent Austin Staab from Stanford, and in the 200 fly, despite setting the NCAA Record at Pac 10’s, he finished 3rd at NCAA’s. That 200 fly will be his toughest go at NCAA’s this year, mostly from Bobby Bollier of Stanford who is the USA Swimming National Champ, but he could very well pull off the triple-dip in March.
He also emerged as one of the country’s best freestylers last year. In relay swims, he led off the 800 in 1:32.75, that would have placed 3rd in the individual; split an 18.7 in the 50 free; and split a 41.7 in the 100 free (which was just a touch slower than Feigen split on a rolling start as well). His long course swimming is still a work-in-progress, but in yards, he’s become probably the most versatile and valuable college swimmer in the country.
Cal will need every bit of Shields’ versatility, as they’ve lost a lot of the unbelievable relay depth that they had last season.
They’ve still got the best sprint breaststroker in the country, which is now senior Nolan Koon. Koon took runner-up at last year’s NCAA Championships in 51.63, and could take a serious run at Mike Alexanrov’s American Record at 51.35. He’s got about the only certain spot amongst the medley relays.
200 Medley: Shields probably sits out the 200 again, because the strain of a four-even day two at the meet wouldn’t be worth leaving him on. Senior Mathis Gydesen is their best sprint backstroke and butterfly option. Senior Chris Rogers is the next-best backstroke option and junior Austin Brown is the next-best butterfly option. Because of the enormity of last year’s senior class, neither got a whole lot of relay chances last year, but if I had to make a guess, I’d say this relay will probably go Rogers-Koon-Gydesen with sophomore Shayne Fleming (19.67) as the anchor.
There is also a possibility that one of the freshman (maybe Seth Stubblefield or Will Hamilton) could step in and take one spot of this medley, most likely the sprint fly, which would then shift Gydesen to the backstroke leg.
400 Medley: This one becomes even more interesting with Shields in play, as he could swim any one of three legs. Koon again is a lock for the breaststroke, but the drop-off from Shields is pretty significant in either the fly, backstroke, or butterfly legs.
This one’s going to be a bit counterintuitive, but I think that Shields will be on the backstroke leg and Gydesen on the butterfly leg (even though Gydesen’s true “best stroke” is backstroke, and Shields’ is fly.The gap between the two in times is just too big (about .4 seconds) to do it the other way around. Though Shields could also go freestyle, I think that the Bears will take a flier that one of the freshman (Tyler Messerschmidt at 43.7 or Seth Stubblefield at 44.0) will be able to get their time down to a quality medley-anchor level, which means in the 42.5 range or better.
Individual Scoring: Aside from Shields’ three events and three B-finals-or-better from Gydesen, the Bears have several other NCAA-level scorers. Koon is the favorite in the 100 breast, as we mentioned, and on graduations alone is on the verge of an A-final in the 200. Trevor Hoyt won the B-final at NCAA’s last year, and should have no problem grabbing a top-8 spot this season.
Sophomore Jeremy Bagshaw didn’t swim his best at NCAA’s, but should definitely score this year in the 500, and will be very close in the mile.
Freshman Sam Metz was a huge surprise, and scored 12th in the 500 at NCAA’s, in addition to a great 800 free relay swim. He carried that momentum into the long course season, including a 7-second time drop in the equivalent 400 free to earn himself two B-finals in his two primary events. The middle-distance fields nationwide are very young, so he’ll have to continue his rapid clip of development to score an A-final at Nationals.
One of Cal’s most underrated groups is their IM’ers, which is higlighted by two Eastern Europeans: Martin Liivamagi of Estonia and Marcin Tarczynski of Poland. Liivamagi took 5th in both distances at Nationals (1:43.5/3:44.4) and is a strong candidate to take two more top-5 finishes. Tarczynski shone during his freshman season last year, and despite just getting acclimated to the emphasis on yards racing placed 14th in the 200 IM (1:44.6 from prelims). He’s more of a sprint-IM’er type, as demonstrated by his back-to-back dominance of the King of the Pool meet but this year will also challenge for a B-final in the 200 back.
Sophomore Shayne Fleming, mentioned above, looked very good at Cal’s season-opening meet with a 46.25 in the 100 free. He hasn’t gotten a chance to swim the 50 yet, but I think he’s probably a B-finalist in that event. That’s even more important given the disappearance of Cal’s awesome sprint depth from last season, as this year will be a challenge to fill all 8 of those relay spots.
Freshman Class: This Cal freshman class is extremely talented; some of which we’ve alluded. They may not be quite as good as their friends from across the bay at Stanford (really splitting hairs there), but they’re going to be counted on to step up just as heavily.
At the top of the heap is Seth Stubblefield out of Texas. He received a lot of attention last year when he skipped his senior year of highschool swimming to focus on his club pursuits, but that decision paid off when he earned a trip to the FINA Youth World Championships in Lima, Peru. In the long-term, his calling is as a 100 butterflier (he was 13th at LC Nationals, and his yards best of 48.1 is one of the best in the class). The biggest payoff of his focus during his last year of high school, however, is what really made this a great signing for Cal: his sprint freestyles. It was those sprint freestyles that really jumped off the page when looking at the results from FINA Juniors, and it’s those sprint freestyles that Cal needs him to immediately be huge in. They can afford to wait a year or two for him to develop into a 46-low butterflier. They don’t have that same luxury with the need for him to become a 42-freestyle.
He also goes a 20.0 in the 50 free, and a 1:36.7 in the 200, along with a 1:45.7 in the 200 fly. All of those could be scoring events for him within two years, and he could be on as many as 4 relays as a freshman.
Tyler Messerschmidt is sort of the backstroke-equivalent of Stubblefield, and equally as good. He hails from Arizona, and brings in bests of 19.9/43.7/1:36.3 in the freestyle races. Amongst returning swimmers on the Cal roster, only Shields was faster in the 100 free last year from a flat-start.
He can also fly on the backstrokes, with bests of 48.7/1:44.6.
If Cal can recreate what they did with Shields for both of these guys (train them to be amongst the best 200 strokers in the country while still improving their sprinting abilities), these Cal relays aren’t too far off from becoming dominant again.
Cal will also bring in Adam Hinshaw from Palo Alto. He’s the younger-brother of junior Ben Hinshaw (a probable NCAA scorer in the 200 fly, and B-finalist in the 400 IM) and Indiana’s Ryan Hinshaw, who was placed 16th at NCAA’s in the 500 free. The scary part is that Adam appears to be the best one yet, meaning that he has a huge ceiling for potential. He won Junior Nationals in the 400 IM last summer in a time that would have placed 4th at Senior Nationals. His yards best in that race is a 3:53.27, and while that’s nowhere near an NCAA-scoring time, his huge drops over the summer (10 seconds from the summer before) make me confident that he will score in that race as a freshman. He might be an even better 200 IM’er, though we didn’t get to see him in that race at Juniors (he cut his meet short for a family vacation). His best there is a 1:48.7.
He’s got good bookends to his IM as a great 200 butterflier (1:48.3) and middle-distance freestyler (1:37.7/4:19.0). Expect him to go 200 IM/400 IM/500 free as a freshman and score double-digit points between the three events.
Cal continued on to bring in more of that freestyle depth that they need with Will Hamilton out of Michigan. He has bests of 44.4/1:36.2 in the 100 and 200 freestyles. He might be the most underrated swimmer in this class. He comes in already having gone a 47.3 in the 100 fly and a 1:44.4 in the 200 fly.
Christian Higgins, like many of his classmates, brings great experience as a member of the 2010 Youth Olympics team. He’s got incredible breaststroke times already for a freshman, with bests of 53.6 and 1:55.8. That is an important key for the future of this Cal program, given that in a matter of two seasons after this year they will otherwise be going from the deepest and best breaststroke group in the country to almost none. He should be a scorer in both events as a freshman, especially probable because of a bit of a lull in breaststroke talent nation-wide this coming season.
Italian Man of Mystery: The big unknown quantity on thie Cal roster is Italian swimmer Fabio Gimondi. Italy is developing themselves a very young and very talented sprinting group, and Gimondi ha ridden that wave to phenomenal sprint times. His best in long course are 22.3/49.7, which were both done in polyurethane suits, but in 2011, he was as fast as 22.9/50.55. When you look at good comparisons, those textile times are very similar to those done by, for example, Stanford’s Aaron Wayne, who placed in the top-25 at both sprints at NCAA’s last year. Gimondi thus far in his career hasn’t been as impressive in short course, but that could be chalked up in part to the differing interntaional focus. As an indicator of the potential, he started off his Cal career with a 46.5 in the 100 free. That’s none-too-shabby of a start. His development in short course competition will be one to watch as a potential game-changer in the NCAA landscape for the next few years.
Diving: Cal didn’t do much last year in diving. They failed to put a single diver into even the A-final of Pac-10’s. Senior Thomas Henninger is the best of the group, and should score top-8 in a few events at this year’s Pac-12’s. Aside from him, Cal brought in a solid freshman this year named Tommy Selby (there are 4 Thomas’ on this team) from the Stanford club diving program. He placed 21st at last year’s Winter Nationals on the platform, and at the 2010 USA Diving Age Group Nationals posted top-12 finishes in both the 1-meter and the 3-meter. Most of his biggest successes have been on synchro, but he’s got the individual skills to be a future NCAA scorer in any of the three events. Probably won’t happen this year, but down the line that could be big for Cal.
2011-2012 Outlook: This looks like it’s going to be a bit of a rebuilding year for Cal. Of course, “rebuilding” years for programs this good, with the pre-season Swimmer of the Year favorite Shields on the roster, are still pretty darn good years, but they don’t seem to have the horses to contend for the team championship this season. They aren’t going to score 182 relay points again, which is where the biggest difference will be noticed. Cal will have a lot of individual scorers again this year, but it seems like a whole lot more of them will be B-finalists than A-finalists.
Cal is rebuilding itself with a bit of a different feel though. They’re recruiting more well-rounded swimmers who can challenge for NCAA titles in two or three events, not just one. They’re shifting some of their power to the 200, 400, and 500 yard events, which is something that hasn’t been much of a focus for them in the past. They’re still bringing in swimmers who can get the job done in relays, but the new-look Bears can do a whole lot more than 50’s and 100’s as well. Heck, their 800 free relay could be their best of the 5 this season. Who would’ve thought that last summer?
If those freshmen come around really quickly (they’re more NCAA-ready than any class in the country outside of Stanford, it would seem), they could place as high as 2nd. My guess is that they’ll be right in the middle of the Pac-12 quagmire with Stanford, USC, and Arizona and are likely to be 3rd overall.
Also, I don’t think 200 IM/500 free is a workable double. I’d expect 500/400/1650 for Hinshaw.
You may be right. Would love to see him in both IM’s, but would be a tough day.
be respectful, just cuz your school-im assuming you’re texan-doesnt have 3 or 4 athletes that is a decision of the coach, and it doesn’t mean coaches who do recruit foreign athletes are to be looked down upon. Durden is still making these kids faster-even if they dont bleed red, white, and blue
2nd or 3rd wouldn’t be too bad for a rebuilding year. Looks like Cal is really starting to build a team that is in the conversation every year (like Texas and Stanford). And keep in mind they do have 15 ncaa qualifiers returning in addition to those key freshmen.
Fleming looks ready to take the mantle in the 50. At Cal’s relay meet, he appears to have split 19.8 already, which is pretty good at a meet where his 100 was 46. Tarczynski could also see action in the sprint frees, with LC bests of 22.5 and 49.3, and as a 100 backstroker, where he was 54 this summer. Also don’t forget that Trevor Hoyt won the 200 breaststroke consoles last year and should be top eight. Another thing is that guys like Brown and Rogers are NCAA qualifiers, but haven’t gotten a chance to compete.
Good job spelling those names. Lots of foreign athletes…